In Premier League winter transfer window, big spending equals big success

In Premier League winter transfer window, big spending equals big success

Finance

In Premier League winter transfer window, big spending equals big success

David Luiz, a former Chelsea winter window  acquisition (Photo by Xavier Laine/Getty Images)

David Luiz, a former Chelsea winter window acquisition (Photo by Xavier Laine/Getty Images)

The biggest transfers in the soccer world historically happen during the summer, while the winter transfer window does not get as much attention from clubs. However according to the data, English Premier League managers might want to rethink their strategy.

A recent study conducted by Bwin found that big spending during the winter transfer window results in improved play during the second half of the season. The study looked at the amount of money each club in the EPL spent during the winter transfer window and compared that to its point per game improvement, or failure, before and after the window closed.

Here are the results:

Big Spenders

Club

Season

Money Spent (M)

Points Per Game Improvement

Chelsea

2010/11

$114.1

0.22

Man City

2008/09

$73.8

0.25

Tottenham

2008/09

$68.2

0.93

Man United

2013/14

$57.3

-0.14

Liverpool

2012/12

$33.3

0.4

West Ham

2006/07

$32.9

0.81

Aston Villa

2010/11

$31.1

0.26

Arsenal

2005/06

$29.5

0.2

Big Sellers

Club

Season

Money Spent (M)

Points Per Game Improvement

Man City

2012/13

-$26.7

-0.31

Liverpool

2008/09

-$22.3

0.44

Chelsea

2008/09

-$17.3

0.24

West Ham

2008/09

-$17.6

-0.09

Tottenham

2011/12

-$11.4

-0.8

Aston Villa

2007/08

-$10.8

-0.35

Arsenal

2007/08

-$9.4

-0.52

Man United

2006/07

-$5.6

-0.17

These stats show that the average rate of improvement for teams that generously spend money in the winter window is 0.37 points per game, while teams who don’t spend money have a -0.20 average rate of improvement.

For example, in the 2008-09 season, Tottenham manager, Harry Redknapp, spent a whopping $68 million on January transfers. This resulted in the team’s point per game average to increase from 1.00 per game before January, to 1.93 after. Compare that to the Spurs 2010-11 season, when the team decided not to spend and instead gained $11.4 million by selling during the January window. This resulted in the title-chasing Spurs’ point per game average to fall heavily from 2.13 before the window, to 1.33 after, and the team ended up finishing 5th in the Premier League.

Juan Mata (OLI SCARFF,OLI SCARFF/AFP/Getty Images)

Juan Mata (OLI SCARFF,OLI SCARFF/AFP/Getty Images)

There is only one exception to this rule and that is Manchester United’s results in the 2013-14 season. The team spent $57.3 million in January 2014 and had the most expensive deal of the month by signing Chelsea midfielder, Juan Mata, for $56.2 million. United’s point per game improvement plummeted from 1.74 in the first half of the season to 0.60 the second half of the season.

Chelsea and Manchester City have been the biggest spenders during the winter transfer window, so it’s no surprise that these teams now occupy the first and second spot on the Premier League table. Other managers should keep this in mind as they continue to pursue players before the window closes on February 2nd.

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